With just under week until the announcements start, Nobel prize fever is officially here.
The official shortlist is shrouded in secrecy, giving those making their predictions about who might win little to go on – but that hasn’t stopped them.
— Nobel medal
As usual, Thomson Reuters have released their Nobel forecast, which uses citation numbers and other statistical wizardry to predict the winners in each category. This approach has successfully predicted 35 Nobel prize winners over the past 12 years.
This time round they highlight three possible chemistry winners – the inventors of the organic light emitting diode (Ching Tang and Steven Van Slyke), RAFT polymerization (Graeme Moad, Ezio Rizzardo, San Thang) and mesoporous materials (Charles Kresge, Ryong Ryoo, Galen Stucky).
Elsewhere, less official speculations – perhaps based more on a hunch – have begun flying around. On the Everyday Scientist blog, chemist Sam Lord has put together some suggestions. Like the number crunchers at Reuters, Lord has some past successes (though he didn’t predict last year’s computational chemistry winners - Karplus, Levitt and Warshel). He thinks the 2014 prize could go to a key historical invention, such as the contraceptive pill, or the lithium-ion battery (also a top pick for The Curious Wavefunction blogger Ashutosh Jogalekar), but also mentions broader areas such as microfluidics, nanotechnology and next-generation sequencing. If last year is anything to go by, there’s much to be said for gut feeling as well as advanced number crunching. As always, we’ll just have to wait a little longer for that all-important announcement from Sweden.
If you want to get into the Nobel spirit and hear more about the possible winners this year, our features editor Neil Withers joined representatives from Nature Chemistry and C&EN to begin the countdown to the 2014 chemistry Nobel in a Google hangout – watch the whole discussion here.